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Creators/Authors contains: "Popovic, B"

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  1. Context.Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are a key probe in modern cosmology, as they can be used to measure luminosity distances at gigaparsec scales. Models of their light curves are used to project heterogeneous observed data onto a common basis for analysis. Aims.The SALT model currently used for SN Ia cosmology describes SNe as having two sources of variability, accounted for by a color parameterc, and a “stretch” parameterx1. We extend the model to include an additional parameter we labelx2, to investigate the cosmological impact of currently unaddressed light-curve variability. Methods.We constructed a new SALT model, that we dub “SALT3+”. This model was trained by an improved version of theSALTshakercode, using training data combining a selection of the second data release of cosmological SNe Ia from the Zwicky Transient Facility and the existing SALT3 training compilation. Results.We find additional, coherent variability in supernova light curves beyond SALT3. Most of this variation can be described as phase-dependent variation ing − randr − icolor curves, correlated with a boost in the height of the secondary maximum ini-band. These behaviors correlate with spectral differences, particularly in line velocity. We find that fits with the existing SALT3 model tend to address this excess variation with the color parameter, leading to less informative measurements of supernova color. We find that neglecting the new parameter in light-curve fits leads to a trend in Hubble residuals withx2of 0.039 ± 0.005 mag, representing a potential systematic uncertainty. However, we find no evidence of a bias in current cosmological measurements. Conclusions.We conclude that extended SN Ia light-curve models promise mild improvement in the accuracy of color measurements, and corresponding cosmological precision. However, models with more parameters are unlikely to substantially affect current cosmological results. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 1, 2026
  2. ABSTRACT Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an $$\sim$$0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9$$\sigma$$ to 3.3$$\sigma$$, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results. 
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  3. ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) have traditionally been reliant on spectroscopy for both classifying the type of supernova and obtaining reliable redshifts to measure the distance–redshift relation. While obtaining a host-galaxy spectroscopic redshift for most SNe is feasible for small-area transient surveys, it will be too resource intensive for upcoming large-area surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will observe on the order of millions of SNe. Here, we use data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to address this problem with photometric redshifts (photo-z) inferred directly from the SN light curve in combination with Gaussian and full $p(z)$ priors from host-galaxy photo-z estimates. Using the DES 5-yr photometrically classified SN sample, we consider several photo-z algorithms as host-galaxy photo-z priors, including the Self-Organizing Map redshifts (SOMPZ), Bayesian Photometric Redshifts (BPZ), and Directional-Neighbourhood Fitting (DNF) redshift estimates employed in the DES 3 × 2 point analyses. With detailed catalogue-level simulations of the DES 5-yr sample, we find that the simulated w can be recovered within $$\pm 0.02$$ when using SN+SOMPZ or DNF prior photo-z, smaller than the average statistical uncertainty for these samples of 0.03. With data, we obtain biases in w consistent with simulations within $${\sim} 1\sigma$$ for three of the five photo-z variants. We further evaluate how photo-z systematics interplay with photometric classification and find classification introduces a subdominant systematic component. This work lays the foundation for next-generation fully photometric SNe Ia cosmological analyses. 
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  4. Abstract We present the full Hubble diagram of photometrically classified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey supernova program (DES-SN). DES-SN discovered more than 20,000 SN candidates and obtained spectroscopic redshifts of 7000 host galaxies. Based on the light-curve quality, we select 1635 photometrically identified SNe Ia with spectroscopic redshift 0.10 <z< 1.13, which is the largest sample of supernovae from any single survey and increases the number of knownz> 0.5 supernovae by a factor of 5. In a companion paper, we present cosmological results of the DES-SN sample combined with 194 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia at low redshift as an anchor for cosmological fits. Here we present extensive modeling of this combined sample and validate the entire analysis pipeline used to derive distances. We show that the statistical and systematic uncertainties on cosmological parameters are σ Ω M , stat + sys Λ CDM = 0.017 in a flat ΛCDM model, and ( σ Ω M , σ w ) stat + sys w CDM = (0.082, 0.152) in a flatwCDM model. Combining the DES SN data with the highly complementary cosmic microwave background measurements by Planck Collaboration reduces by a factor of 4 uncertainties on cosmological parameters. In all cases, statistical uncertainties dominate over systematics. We show that uncertainties due to photometric classification make up less than 10% of the total systematic uncertainty budget. This result sets the stage for the next generation of SN cosmology surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time. 
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  5. Abstract We presentgrizphotometric light curves for the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova (DES-SN) program, obtained with both forced point-spread function photometry on difference images (DiffImg) performed during survey operations, and scene modelling photometry (SMP) on search images processed after the survey. This release contains 31,636DiffImgand 19,706 high-quality SMP light curves, the latter of which contain 1635 photometrically classified SNe that pass cosmology quality cuts. This sample spans the largest redshift (z) range ever covered by a single SN survey (0.1 <z< 1.13) and is the largest single sample from a single instrument of SNe ever used for cosmological constraints. We describe in detail the improvements made to obtain the final DES-SN photometry and provide a comparison to what was used in the 3 yr DES-SN spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia SN sample. We also include a comparative analysis of the performance of the SMP photometry with respect to the real-timeDiffImgforced photometry and find that SMP photometry is more precise, more accurate, and less sensitive to the host-galaxy surface brightness anomaly. The public release of the light curves and ancillary data can be found atgithub.com/des-science/DES-SN5YRand doi:10.5281/zenodo.12720777. 
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  6. Abstract Redshift measurements, primarily obtained from host galaxies, are essential for inferring cosmological parameters from type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Matching SNe to host galaxies using images is nontrivial, resulting in a subset of SNe with mismatched hosts and thus incorrect redshifts. We evaluate the host galaxy mismatch rate and resulting biases on cosmological parameters from simulations modeled after the Dark Energy Survey 5 Yr (DES-SN5YR) photometric sample. For both DES-SN5YR data and simulations, we employ the directional light radius method for host galaxy matching. In our SN Ia simulations, we find that 1.7% of SNe are matched to the wrong host galaxy, with redshift differences between the true and matched hosts of up to 0.6. Using our analysis pipeline, we determine the shift in the dark energy equation of state parameter (Δw) due to including SNe with incorrect host galaxy matches. For SN Ia–only simulations, we find Δw= 0.0013 ± 0.0026 with constraints from the cosmic microwave background. Including core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia in the simulation, we find that Δwranges from 0.0009 to 0.0032, depending on the photometric classifier used. This bias is an order of magnitude smaller than the expected total uncertainty onwfrom the DES-SN5YR sample of ∼0.03. We conclude that the bias onwfrom host galaxy mismatch is much smaller than the uncertainties expected from the DES-SN5YR sample, but we encourage further studies to reduce this bias through better host-matching algorithms or selection cuts. 
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  7. Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 <z< 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-qualityz> 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 <z< 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find ΩM= 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration (q0< 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5σconfidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 0.096 + 0.074 , 0.80 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flatwCDM. For flatw0waCDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 0.043 + 0.033 , 0.36 0.30 + 0.36 , 8.8 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2σ. Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (ΩM,w) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2σ. Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses. 
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  8. ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of samples of photometrically identified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depend on understanding the effects of ‘contamination’ from core-collapse and peculiar SN Ia events. We employ a rigorous analysis using the photometric classifier SuperNNova on state-of-the-art simulations of SN samples to determine cosmological biases due to such ‘non-Ia’ contamination in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-yr SN sample. Depending on the non-Ia SN models used in the SuperNNova training and testing samples, contamination ranges from 0.8 to 3.5 per cent, with a classification efficiency of 97.7–99.5 per cent. Using the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework and its extension BBC (‘BEAMS with Bias Correction’), we produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram marginalized over contamination and corrected for selection effects, and use it to constrain the dark energy equation-of-state, w. Assuming a flat universe with Gaussian ΩM prior of 0.311 ± 0.010, we show that biases on w are <0.008 when using SuperNNova, with systematic uncertainties associated with contamination around 10 per cent of the statistical uncertainty on w for the DES-SN sample. An alternative approach of discarding contaminants using outlier rejection techniques (e.g. Chauvenet’s criterion) in place of SuperNNova leads to biases on w that are larger but still modest (0.015–0.03). Finally, we measure biases due to contamination on w0 and wa (assuming a flat universe), and find these to be <0.009 in w0 and <0.108 in wa, 5 to 10 times smaller than the statistical uncertainties for the DES-SN sample. 
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